Overview of monthly US retail sales
Friday’s US economic report highlights the release of monthly retail sales figures, expected at 12:30 p.m. GMT. Consensus estimates point to a new set of dismal numbers, and title sales are expected to drop 12% in April. The figure excluding automobiles is expected to have dropped 8.6% in the month reported. Meanwhile, the closely monitored retail sales control group is expected to decrease by 4.6%.
How could this affect EUR / USD?
The moderate market reaction to the recent spate of disappointing macro releases suggests that the April retail sales report will also be ignored, unless there is a big departure from the expected numbers. The data seems unlikely to be a game-changer for the USD or to give a significant boost to the EUR / USD pair.
Prior to the major release, FXStreet Yohay Elam provided important technical levels to trade the major: “Support is waiting at 1.0780, which was a low point several times in May, and more importantly 1.0765, the lowest monthly. Below 1.0730 and 1.0640 are waiting. “
“Looking up, 1.0820 has capsized recovery attempts and the 50 SMA is approaching that price. The next line to watch out for is 1.0870, a swing higher than last week, then 1.0890, a tough move in April. 1.0925 and 1.0970 are the following, ”added Yohay.
About retail sales in the United States
Retail sales released by the US Census Bureau measure total retail store revenue. The monthly percentage changes reflect the rate of change of these sales. The evolution of retail sales is widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is considered positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is considered negative (or bearish).