The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ employment statistics for April, released Thursday at 01:30 GMT, will be the immediate catalyst for AUD / USD. The report on the works is gaining in importance while being for the lockout period directed against coronaviruses (COVID-19).
The market consensus favors the change in employment to -535.0K from 5.9K on a seasonally adjusted basis while the unemployment rate should drop from 5.2% to 8.3%. In addition, the participation rate may drop to 65.2% compared to 66.0% previously.
Westpac follows the movement of optimistic expectations while saying:
Information on the ATO payroll indicated that nearly one million workers have already been made inactive. The main question is how this will translate into official statistics given the differences in classification. Westpac forecasts a decrease of -450,000 seasonally adjusted jobs. The Bloomberg survey finds a range of -1,000k to -125k with a median of -575k. Westpac expects the unemployment rate to rise from 5.2% to 8.3% (median 8.2%), with participation dropping sharply to 65.3%. Underemployment should show a much larger jump.
TD Securities also remains supportive of market consensus while saying:
Australian labor force data for April should reflect the full impact of the closure of COVID-19, which was not the case for the March data. The latest current data on ABS suggests that almost a million people may have cut wages, but what makes the problem worse is that those who receive payments from Jobkeeper are likely to be considered. as employees. The market is preparing for a drop of almost 600k, we are drawing a -500k. Participation is expected to fall, however, the unemployment rate is expected to rise. The market is at 8.2%, we expect a figure of 8% or more.
How could the data affect AUD / USD?
Given the investigation period including when the virus hit the economic brakes, negative numbers are expected to arrive, which in turn can lead to an immediate drop in AUD / USD. Even the RBA has acknowledged that the Australian economy is going through a very difficult time and that the outlook is uncertain. The central bank also predicted in its quarterly monetary policy statement that the unemployment rate would peak at 10.0% in June and 7.5% for 2021. Although any positive surprise translates into zeal and can push the Aussie pair to challenge the monthly peak.
Technically, sellers are hiding around the 100-day SMA, currently near 0.6525, while the monthly high around 0.6560 / 65 adds to the upside barrier. If there was a sharp rise above 0.6065, the March high close to 0.6690 will flash on bullish radars. Meanwhile, the confluence of a three-week ascending trend line and a 21-day SMA near 0.6420 / 25 keeps limited short-term declines, a break of which can cause the quote to go down. from the previous week around 0.6370.
About changing jobs
The change in employment published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of people employed in Australia. In general, an increase in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is considered positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is considered negative (or bearish).
About the unemployment rate
The Unemployment rate published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed people divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate increases, indicates a lack of expansion in the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weakening the Australian economy. A decrease in the figure is considered positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is considered negative (or bearish).