The USD / CAD’s fall from 1.4667 continued last week, reaching as low as 1.3047. Intraday bias remains at a disadvantage this week. The next near term target is 100% projection from 1.4048 to 1.3315 from 1.3715 at 1.2982. On the upside, resistance break of 1.3239 is needed to indicate short-term bottom. Otherwise, the outlook will remain bearish in the event of a recovery.
In the larger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (high in 2016). A sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.4667 at 1.3056 will target a test of 1.2061 (low in 2017). But we can expect a loss of reduced speed as it approaches this key support. However, upward 1.3715 resistance is required to confirm that the fall is complete. Otherwise, the outlook will remain bearish.
In the longer term, the delayed case of resumption of the up-trend from 0.9506 (low in 2007) is delayed. Consolidation from 1.4689 extends with another medium term. As long as 1.2061 support lasts, such an up-trend should still resume through 1.4689 at a later date.