The Australian dollar fell slightly after China released its key retail and industrial production data for April. The data showed that the country’s retail sales fell 7.5% after falling 15.8% in the previous month. Industrial production increased by 3.9% year on year, which was better than expected 1.5%. In the same month, construction investment fell by 10.3% year on year, which was an improvement from the previous fall of 16.1%. Unemployment rose from 5.9% to 6.0%. These figures show that the Chinese economy has made some small improvements when it opens up.
The euro was slightly changed after the ECB warned of a deep recession in its bulletin yesterday. The region is expected to be among the hardest hit countries. According to Reuters, the bank is expected to increase its quantitative easing program in the coming month. We receive several important numbers from the region today. These include first quarter GDP data from Germany and the euro area. We will also receive inflation figures from Italy.
The US dollar index was relatively unchanged ahead of the important data that will be released today. Analysts expect total retail sales to decline by 12.0% in April, which will be worse than the previous 8.7%. Core retail sales are expected to fall by 8.6% this month. Industrial production will be another important data. Analysts expect output to fall by 11.5% in April, while manufacturing output fell by 13%. These figures will demonstrate how the US economy has been hurt by the current pandemic.
EUR / USD
The EUR / USD pair was slightly changed during the Asian session and is now trading at 1.0800, which is slightly above yesterday’s low level of 1.0775. On the schedule, the price is slightly above the Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6% and slightly below the moving average in the short and medium term. The pair is likely to see some significant moves today as the market responds to GDP data from Europe and US retail.
AUD / USD
The AUD / USD pair fell slightly after China released its numbers. It is now trading at 0.6452, which is slightly below today’s high of 0.6470. On the schedule, the price is along the 50-day EMA, approaching the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. It is also slightly below the Ichimoku cloud. This means the pair may fall as the Bears try to test the next support of 0.6430.
XBR / USD
The XBR / USD pair rose slightly as traders began to price more demand. It reached a high of 31.50, which was higher than the week’s low of 28.95. On the timetable, the price is slightly above the short- and medium-term average movements, while the RSI has moved to the overbought level of 70. The average true range, which is an important measure of volatility, has dropped significantly. The pair may continue to rise as the bulls try to test last week’s high of 32.38.