Danske Bank analysts say the Russian ruble could fall further in the near term against the US dollar, but they forecast the USD / RUB to be 70.00 in three months and 69.00 in six.
“In Russia, the economy can weather the storm, because inflation is low, and even after the 20-30% move into the snag, the CPI is unlikely to be in the double digits. In the last few months we have seen a massive sell off of many high beta EM FX crosses like TRY, ZAR, BRL, IDR. We no longer believe that there is a valuation medium for the RUB. Recently, the risks of sanctions have been incorporated into the RUB (Belarus and Afghanistan Stories) spot, but we expect them to subside over time. In the near term, we do not expect oil prices to change, but the likely direction is a slight upward drift. “
“The possibility of a greater strength of the RUB lies in rising oil prices, lower risk of sanctions and stronger-than-expected global demand, and we have moderated the expected rise in the ruble a bit across all tenors. of the forecast profile. “