The increase in the worldwide rise in new confirmed infections and deaths from the coronavirus pandemic seems to have peaked, at least for a first wave, although this may be at least partly due to the pandemic moving into South American countries,
- Equity markets rose very sharply yesterday as the S&P 500 index hit a new 2-month high, closing above its 61.8% Fibonacci peak-to-trough retracement. Many market analysts believe the bottom of this bear market has already reached, but other analysts are seeing further strong declines in stocks in the coming weeks and months. There is a strong disagreement in the opinion, but yesterday saw the bullish case strength. Almost all risk values are strengthened. The move was fueled by the mother’s aggressive claims about her trial of a potential coronavirus vaccine.
- Gold has fallen sharply from the new 7-year high of $ 1765. Higher prices this week seem unlikely to happen.
- The price of crude oil has begun to stabilize just above $ 30 a year. Barrel.
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- The rise in the world in new confirmed infections and deaths from the coronavirus pandemic seems to have peaked, at least for a first wave, though this may be at least in part due to the pandemic moving into South American countries that tend to have poorer reporting systems. The overall reported deaths globally peaked on April 18th and daily new confirmed cases on April 24th. However, it can be argued that the number of new cases on a daily basis worldwide is plateau and not declining. Overall, confirmed new cases amount to over 4.8 million with an average death rate of 6.63%. The pandemic epicenter is still located in the U.S.A. outside the state of New York. The epicenter is close to moving to South America, with reported daily deaths now almost as high as in the U.S.A. Both the total number of new cases and deaths continues to slowly decline daily in the U.S.A. and in England A world recession or possibly even depression from the pandemic seems inevitable, with Goldman Sachs expecting a 34% decline in the U.S. Second quarter GDP and other analysts saw a 30% unemployment rate in the near future. If correct, these will be the worst such figures seen since the 1930s, but it should be noted that many analysts continue to see a far better outlook for the U.S. unemployment. The WTO has projected global trade to fall by a third. USA. now sees a 15% unemployment rate and a decrease of 1st Q GDP or 4.8%.
- Forex markets came alive yesterday, dominated by weakness in the Japanese yen and in the US. Dollar and strength of the euro and the Australian dollar.
- The incidence of new coronavirus infections appears to increase most rapidly in Russia, Brazil and India. Russia now has the second highest number of confirmed cases globally, followed by Brazil and the U.K. While a strong majority of coronavirus confirmed cases are still in Europe and U.S.A., with U.S.A. accounting for about a third of all cases, infections are starting to rise dramatically in South America, now accounting for more than a quarter of global deaths. The situation is particularly bad in Brazil, which currently confirms more than 14,000 new cases and 700 deaths daily. President of Brazil Jair Bolsonaro, comparing coronavirus with influenza, has issued decrees trying to reopen the land ignored by state leaders.