Within the Investment Bank’s Outlook, every week we bring you a selection of viewpoints or perspectives from leading investment banks to the brief summary of the main points and direction of view for the upcoming week. These excerpts from the research notes cover topics such as key market issues the economic versions, as well as one of the major trends and the levels of to see. Please note that this material does not reflect the opinions or Tickmill, it is provided for educational purposes only and should not as an investment recommendation.
Risk to remain tight on the re-opening of the narrative, but the tension…
- The re-opening of the news seems to have driven risk rally in Asia seen so far. “We see a risk-related USD weakness compared to the FX-complex, with the AUD and NZD better than the G10, while the CAD is also a note of” king of those who know Brent and WTI prices, both of which are over $30 now. In EMFX, ZAR and MXN are better than for a while in Asia FX, CNH USD, will be fixed. To isolate the PHP, the complex, to the drains exposed, on Friday. Shares are on the front foot, with the S&P futures, at 2876, at the time of writing, with the Asian indices are lagging. Here are the latest conflicting headlines in the markets:
- Re-Opening & Casino: The news that 75% of California, has already been returned, according to the Governor of the state, as well as a large U.S. technology companies reporting plans, jonti, more stores seems appetite for risk to increase, to outweigh cautious comments from Federal reserve Chairman, and Secretary of state Powell, who warned on Sunday, the who, the U.S. recovery could take until 2021, but that the majority of cancellations so far, and could be temporarily. Powell also pushed once again on a negative-rate, slightly stronger than last week. The comic still seems to be in danger of the second wave. On this, he commented, “provided that there is a second wave of corona-virus, which I think you will see the economy recover steadily through the second half of this year.” The crucial question remains, ” what-how can policy respond in the face of the second wave, after the re-opening?
- The USA and China: The administration opened a new front in the conflict, on Friday, by the blocking of a chip-manufacturer, with American equipment, the supply of Smartphone without U.S. government approval. In Asia, this volatility caused in the local semiconductor stocks, with the Taiex, the under-performance in the equity space. The game room for the Chinese version, it is now a real danger on the horizon, the country is “unreliable” entity list”,” a possible method of alignment the US market. We have seen no reaction in the FX markets to the headlines here. We’ve covered this before, in the light of China’s laws and rules, such as the Cyber-security Review-Antivirus and Anti-monopoly investigating to law & restrictions on US companies. Most of US-companies-China “an unreliable Person, can be small companies such as the US, commercial agencies, which are pushed to the brink of collapse The could Huawei as one of the “first-stage” warning to the U.S. over-the–ban–to add a larger company.
RBC Capital Markets
The week ahead: The FOMC minutes (Wednesday) are the main release in an otherwise quiet U.S. calendar. The FOMC meeting in connection with a of these minutes, showed very little change in the statement. So the minutes are unlikely to reveal much in the way of new insights. In fact, Barry, spoke recently that, on some level, we forget these minutes. His tone, leaned on the gloomy side, with a view to the coming challenges of the economy and we would expect that to be a similar sound, is revealed here. Outside of the United States, the first signs of activity in may, the EZ and the UK PMIs; Thursday and Friday) will be the focus. Canada has in the April CPI and March retail sales. There is no G10 Central Bank announcements this week, but also Turkey and South Africa, both of which proclaim, on Thursday.
N: Japan Q1 GDP of 0.9% (consensus of -1.1%), while private consumption accounting for a large part of the decline. Although this is a relatively small contraction, by international standards, it is important that the GDP, also collapsed in Q4, in Japan, due to the consumption tax increase in October). After two quarters of negative growth, Japan was technically in recession.
The euro: Most of the European countries began to lift their lock-downs in the first weeks of September. The ‘flash’ PMI survey (Friday) will have been carried out sometime around the middle of the month and are therefore likely to show, to allow for some improvements such as the acceleration or restrictions that some companies, particularly in the consumer-directed services, jonti. The extent of the improvement is likely to be too small, however.
GBP: Similar, although smaller improvements are likely to be in the UK-flash-PMI-publications (Thursday). This week, the April brings CPI data, but there is greater uncertainty around the April CPI data as normal, given the difficulty that the UK is in lock-down) set for the collection of prices. Changes in energy prices and the recent fuel prices coincides with changes that are already planned: energy-water-to combine the invoice should push CPI inflation below 1% y/y this month. The official measures of social care and employment will be in this week, the UK-labour market report (morning) show only an incomplete picture of the impact of the current crisis on the UK labour market.
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