Economists at Standard Chartered Bank lower the forecast for Russian GDP for 2020 to -5.0% (from -1.5%) and raise the forecast for 2021 to 3.5% (from 1.2%). Nordea and Credit Suisse have just released USD / RUB forecasts.
“Given the scale of the COVID-19 epidemic and the likely impact of the prolonged foreclosure on businesses and households, we are lowering our growth forecasts for 2020 to -5.0% from -1.5 % previously. ”
“Assuming that no secondary epidemic occurs, the Russian economy should start to gradually return to normal in the second half, although the decline in world oil prices will continue to cap oil export earnings. We forecast stronger growth in 2021 or 3.5% (1.2% previously) due to positive base effects. “
“With a third package of economic support measures to be announced in early June, we expect the budget deficit to widen to 5.0% of GDP this year (from 3.5% previously).”
“We believe the Russian central bank could take further action, and we are now planning to cut rates further by 75 basis points, bringing the key rate to 4.75% by the end of 2020 (from 5.50% previously ). “