The greenback is headed for the NFP version, which should post a loss of 8 million additional positions in May, a downward trend compared to most of its main rivals, except those considered to be safe havens. . Optimistic data should weigh on the dollar and fuel rallies on commodity currencies, reports FXStreet chief analyst Valeria Bednarik.
“The United States should have lost 8 million jobs in May, much better than the 20.5 million shredded in April. This would mean that around 30 million people lost their jobs in the middle of COVID-19. The unemployment rate should, however, stand at 19.7% against 14.7%. ”
“There is no sign of a short-term recovery in employment, and speculative interest knows this. The best it can do is continue to bet on an imminent recovery, despite growing fears about a potential second wave in the country following the civil unrest seen these days. “
“Optimistic US data recently sparked rallies on Wall Street at the expense of the dollar, and there is no reason to believe that a better than expected US employment report could trigger a different reaction. Disappointing figures could have the opposite effect, although to a lesser extent and hardly signify a return of the dollar. “
“Commodity-related currencies are most likely to rally if the data prints higher, while gold prices are likely to extend their decline to new weekly lows. The pound, on the other hand, should be the most reluctant to issue a direct reaction to the report. “