- USD / INR is struggling near a four month old support line in oversold RSI conditions.
- Bearish MACD signals, 50 day SMA breach failures keep sellers hopeful.
- July lows may call pullback into question, another drop may come March 13 low.
USD / INR bounces off its intraday low of 74.07 to 74.18 during Tuesday’s initial Indian session. The cross is trading near the low since March 18 while struggling against a downtrend line from April 30.
Oversold RSI conditions and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s rise from December 13, 2019 to April 22, 2020 are also a challenge for the bears.
While strong supports and RSI status increase the pair’s chances of a pullback to July low near 74.45, the further rise will be challenged by a confluence of 38.2% retracement of Fibonacci and 50-day SMA around 75.00-05.
On the contrary, the MACD signals the most bearish signs since the beginning of July which in turn expects a daily close below 74.10 to hit the March 13 low at 73.71.
It should be noted, however, that the pair’s prolonged decline beyond 73.71 will be challenged by 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement at 73.30.
USD / INR daily chart
Trend: expected decline