Gold extends consolidation after moving to $ 2075/80. Credit Suisse strategists remain of the view that this is a break in the core uptrend, but this phase could last for some time and the yellow metal could still see a test of support at 1867 / $ 37.
Gold continues its expected consolidation after moving to our baseline target of $ 2,075 / $ 80. While we continue to see the long-term basic trend upward, reinforced by falling US real yields and a weaker US dollar, we believe it is possible that a more prolonged phase of consolidation is unfolding in the future. first. “
Right now, our bias remains for a group of supports at $ 1867/37 to ideally maintain additional weakness, which includes the 23.6% retracement of the rally from the 2018 low. Should weakness s To extend, we would consider a deeper pullback to $ 1,765, potentially $ 1,726. ”
After this phase we are looking for a possible move above $ 2075 with resistance at $ 2175 and then $ 2300. While we would look for further consolidation at this latter level, a direct breakout may see potential resistance to the trend at $ 2417, with a margin of $ 2700/20 over the long term.
“It should be noted that the monthly RSI hit its extreme levels seen in 2006 and 2008, adding weight to the prospect of a longer break in the uptrend. In fact, in the 2001/2011 bull market, the two major consolidation phases (2006/2007 and 2008/2009) lasted 16 and 18 months respectively. A similar consolidation duration at this point, however, is not our baseline scenario at this time. “