The rate of increase globally in new confirmed infections and deaths from the coronavirus pandemic seems to have peaked, at least for a first wave,
- Equity markets fell again yesterday as the Dow Jones & S&P 500 indexes began to form bearish “head and shoulders” patterns on their respective daily charts. The Dow Jones Index closed yesterday below its 50% retracement level by 2020’s peak to trough. U.S. indices have already recovered almost 60% of their losses from the top, which is technically important as a point of inflection. Many market analysts believe the bottom of this bear market has already reached, but other analysts are seeing further strong declines in stocks in the coming weeks and months. There is a strong disagreement in opinion.
- The price of crude oil continues its consolidation just above $ 25 per share. Barrel.
- The price of gold continues its multi-week consolidation pattern of around $ 1,700 per share. Ounce, until a potential breakout.
- Forex markets are dominated by relative strength in the first the Japanese yen and secondly the U.S. Dollar, while the British pound and other “risky” currencies are weak.
Falling oil prices offer great trading opportunities
- Tuesday’s U.S. inflation data showed an unusual negative rate of deflation (0.8%). The Federal Reserve ruled out a negative interest rate policy, which increased the USD. Deflation means that USD cash increases in purchasing power day by day. Many currencies are likely to see deflation in the coming months with unpredictable consequences for the Forex market.
- On Wednesday, UK provisional GDP data saw a 2% decline, which was better than the 2.6% decline forecast.
- RBNZ just left its interest rate unchanged in its monthly policy entry.
- The rise in the world in new confirmed infections and deaths from the coronavirus pandemic seems to have peaked, at least for a first wave, though this may be at least in part due to the pandemic moving into South American countries that tend to have poorer reporting systems. The overall reported deaths globally peaked on April 18th and daily new confirmed cases on April 24th. However it can be argued that the number of new cases on a daily basis worldwide is plateau and not declining. Overall confirmed new cases amount to over 4.3 million with an average case mortality of 6.84%. The pandemic epicenter is still located in the U.S.A., increasingly more outside than within New York, but it seems that the peak of this wave has already reached there, while this also looks safer for any European nation. Both the total number of new cases and deaths continues to slowly decline daily in the U.S.A. and in England A world recession or possibly even depression from the pandemic seems inevitable, with Goldman Sachs expecting a 34% decline in the U.S. Second quarter GDP and other analysts saw a 30% unemployment rate in the near future. If correct, these will be the worst such figures seen since the 1930s, but it should be noted that many analysts continue to see a far better outlook for the U.S. unemployment. The WTO has projected global trade to fall by a third. U.S.A. now sees a 15% unemployment rate and a decrease of 1st Q GDP or 4.8%.
- The incidence of new coronavirus infections appears to increase most rapidly in Russia, Brazil and India. Russia now has the second highest number of confirmed cases globally. Russia and South America are likely to become new epicenters of the pandemic soon.
- While a strong majority of coronavirus confirmed cases are still in Europe and U.S.A., with U.S.A. accounting for about a third of all cases, Infections are starting to rise dramatically in South America, which now accounts for nearly a quarter of global deaths. The situation is particularly bad in Brazil, which now confirms more than 10,000 new cases and 700 deaths daily. President of Brazil Jair Bolsonaro, comparing coronavirus with influenza, has issued decrees trying to reopen the land ignored by state leaders.