- Gross domestic product (JPY) – The Japanese Q1 prel. GDP is expected to show a relatively small loss of -4.6% y / y and -1.2% q / q, of -7.1% and -1.8%, respectively, as the impact of Covid-19 have clearly increased recession risks.
- Eurogroup meeting
Tuesday – May 19, 2020
- RBA minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30)) – The RBA minutes should serve as a guide as to whether the RBA members are actually prepared for further relaxation. The bank left key policy instruments unchanged at its last meeting, while the RBA broadened the pool of collateral in daily market operations to that of non-banks with IG ratings. At the same time, the bank said it was willing to scale up government bond purchases if necessary.
- Average earnings (GBP, GMT 06:00) – The average profit excluding bonus for May is expected to remain unchanged. The ILO unemployment rate is expected to have declined slightly by 3.9% (3 million) from 4.0%.
- Economic sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – ZEW’s German economic sentiment for May is expected to have fallen to -42.3, following a dip in April to 28. This will be important for retail recovery, as consumers need to be confident enough to go out again and spend.
- Home starts and building permits (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts should drop to a rate of 1,000 million in April, after dropping to 1,216 million in March. Licenses are expected to drop to $ 0.800 million in April. All housing measures will give up ground with housing in April, although most states labeled construction as essential, and many construction sites across the country remained open. Before the pandemic, permits had followed a solid growth path that started in the second quarter of 2019, fueled by low mortgage rates, in addition to the starting strength, and this strength will hopefully resume as the pandemic subsides.
- Fed’s Chairman Powell testifies (USD, GMT 14:00) – Federal Reserve President Jerome Powell testifies before Congress and provides a broad overview of the economy and monetary policy.
Wednesday – May 20, 2020
- PBoC Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:30) –The People’s Bank of China announced in its first quarter report a more aggressive monetary stimulus. This meeting should provide guidance for the next step in the loan prime rates.
- Retail Sales & Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 06:00) – UK retail sales are expected to finally provide the first real insight into the UK’s economic hit after the lockdown. Retail sales should drop to -0.2% m / m in April. Inflation remains unchanged, with total inflation expected to be 1.5% y / y and a core inflation of 1.6% y / y.
- Consumer price index and core (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Headline inflation rates in Germany and the euro area are currently very low, largely due to the impact of the global oil price slump. There is plenty of evidence that headline inflation will continue to fall as global demand suppresses and unemployment soars, which will keep a member on wage pressures even as economies leave locks. The final inflation rate for April is 0.5%.
- Consumer price index and core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada’s CPI saw a sharp contraction in March that was more pronounced than expected, but not shocking given the severe impact on the economy of at-home orders and the fall in oil prices. However, the figure for April is expected to be slightly stronger at -0.4% from -0.6%.
- FOMC minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) – The FOMC Minutes Report provides FOMC members with an opinion on the US economic outlook and any views on future rate hikes.
Thursday – May 21, 2020
- GBA speech by Governor Lowe (AUD, GMT 02:30)
- Markit PMI (EUR, GMT 07: 30-08: 00) – The prel. May that the composite PMI for both Germany and the eurozone is expected to record upward values of 31.0 and 25.7, respectively, following last month’s massive decline. However, each lecture below clearly shows 50 suggested contraction in the economy.
- Markit Services PMI (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The final PMI for UK services (May 3) was revised slightly higher – from 12.3 initially reported to 13.4. Still, as seen in other countries, the drop in the services sector was astonishing, plummeting from 34.5 to March to 13.4 (revised from 12.3) from March, with April being the first month of data to assess its true impact of the coronavirus / lock-down completely. The data reflects the large size of the mothballs in business as a result of the pandemic and blocking of consequences imposed in the UK on March 23. This is not expected to change significantly in May, although a slightly better reading is seen at 22.1.
- Unemployed claims (USD, GMT 12:30)– Initial US unemployment claims declined -195k to 2,981k in the week ending May 9, following the decline from -691k in the previous week to 3,176k (from 3,169k). The first claims have fallen since the rise to 6,867k in late March.
- Fed Chairman Powell and Fed Clarida’s speech
- Tokyo Core CPI (JPY, GMT 23:30) – Tokyo CPI is usually a good measure of overall inflation in the Japanese economy.
Friday – May 22, 2020
- Retail (GBP, GMT 06:00) – UK retail sales are expected to provide more insight into the Covid-19 damage.
- Retail (CAD, GMT 12:30) –Retail sales growth in Canada moderated in February, which should give way to significant declines in March. The ex-vehicle aggregate was flat after a revised 0.1% gain (from -0.1%). This report is yet another look at the rearview mirror and the last ‘clean’ retail report for a while. Statistics Canada notes that the onset of COVID-19 and railroad blocks affected retail by a “negligible amount”.
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