EUR / JPY remained in consolidation above 111.42 last week and the outlook remains unchanged. Some more sideways trading can be seen. But the upside should be limited below 117.77 resistance to bring another decline. On the downside, the 114.42 break should target 161.8% forecast from 122.87 to 116.12 from 121.14 at 110.21 next.
In the bigger picture, the downturn from 137.49 (high in 2018) is still underway. EUR / JPY remains well within falling channel and below falling 55 week EMA. A deeper fall could be seen to try again 109.48 (2016 low) next. On the upside, resistance breaks of 122.87 are needed to confirm the medium term. Otherwise, the outlook will remain bearish in the event of a rebound.
In the long-term picture, EUR / JPY remains in the long-term side pattern established since 2000. Falling from 137.49 is seen as a falling leg inside the pattern. This falling leg will target 109.48 (2016 low). When EUR / JPY remains below 55 months EMA (now at 124.52), this is the preferred case.