EUR / AUD was rejected by 1.6586 resistance last and has fallen sharply since then. However, it remains well above 1.6033 support. The original bias remains neutral this week and some more consolidations could still be seen. On the lower side, a solid break of 1.6033 will confirm the resumption of the entire fall from 1.9799. Deeper declines are then seen to the long-term EMA of 1.5774. On the upside, a break of 1.6586 resistance is needed to indicate reversal, otherwise the outlook will remain bearish in the event of another improvement.
In the bigger picture, the whole up-trend from 1.1602 (low in 2012) may have ended 1.9799. A deeper decline could be seen at the 55 month EMA (now at 1.5774). Sustained break that will pave the way for 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733. This remains the preferred case now as long as there is 1.6586 resistance.
In the longer term, image rise from 1.1602 (low 2012) could have already been completed with three waves up to 1.9799. Developments suggest that long-term reach is extended by another medium-term downward trend. Ongoing trading below the 55 month EMA (now at 1.5774) will further confirm this case and target 1.1602 / 3624 support zone.