The underlying USD / TRY bullish trend remains intact due to current market concerns about Turkey’s vulnerabilities exacerbated by the coronavirus crisis and a weaker pound, by Rabobank.
“The prospect of the worst tourist season in many decades, accompanied by a sharp decline in good exports and the fall in foreign exchange reserves, constitutes a major challenge for Turkey, which needs significant inflows of hard currency to finance imports and short-term debt obligations in foreign currency. . ”
“We will be the first to adopt a constructive vision of the Turkish lira as soon as the ineffective and counterproductive strategy of defending the currency at all costs by spending a substantial amount of USD for exchange interventions and by discouraging market players to negotiate the pound will be dropped. ”
“At this point, the USD / TRY retreat from the high of 7.2690 is only a short-term correction in the uptrend which remains intact.”