Market sentiment is increasingly “risking out”, which would normally hit the Australian dollar hard, but it has some long-term strength holding up.
Relative strength in AUD
Yesterday’s signals was not triggered as there was insufficient bullish price measure to trigger long trading items as 0.6511 and 0.6473 were first reached.
Today’s AUD / USD signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades are to be entered from 8am New York time Wednesday to 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.
Short trade idea
- Short entry after bearish price trading on the H1 timeframe immediately after the next touch of 0.6498.
- Set stop loss 1 beep over the local turn high.
- Move the stop loss to break when the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Deduct 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and let the rest of the position run.
Long trade idea
- Long entry after bullish price trading on the H1 timeframe immediately after the next touch of 0.6420.
- Set stop loss 1 beep below the local turn low.
- Move the stop loss to break when the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Deduct 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and let the rest of the position run.
The best way to identify a classic “price change” is to close an hour’s candle, e.g. A pin, a doji, an exterior or even just a bright light with a higher closure. You can take advantage of these levels or zones by looking at price action that occur at the given levels.
AUD / USD analysis
I wrote yesterday that the area around 0.6500 would probably be central again. I was ready to take a bearish bias if we had caused yet another failure to break above 0.6500 when New York opens. If the price is instead set above 0.6520, that would be a bullish sign.
This was a pretty good call as we only got an hour’s close above 0.6520 before the price again fell below the 0.6500 range, so the level was correctly identified as central.
The technical picture is confused and quite consolidating. We still have resistance intact very close to 0.6500, and this may in turn provide a central point for the day, but I’ll be less sure. I’m also not very sure about the support of 0.6420.
Market sentiment is increasingly “risking out”, which would normally hit the Australian dollar hard, but it has some long-term strength holding up.
For these reasons I’ll stand aside and wait either to see the price end the New York session clearly above 0.6520, which would be a bullish sign tomorrow, or clearly below 0.6420, which would instead be a bearish sign.
With regard to the USD, the President of the Federal Reserve will give a small speech at. 2 pm London time. For AUD, data on employment change and unemployment rate will be released at 02:30.