The Aussie sagged last week The AUD/USD fell by 1.8%. The upcoming week has two events. Hthere is a perspective to highlights, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
The NAB’s Business Confidence gauge showed the deep pessimism in April, with a reading or a depth of 45 points. Yet, it was an improvement compared to the previous reading of -66 points. There was better news from the Westpac Consumer confidence, which has recorded a considerable increase (16.4%), or the Glory. This marked a strong rebound after the April slide, or -17.7 percent. The employment figures have been dismal at the end of the month of April. The economy shed 594.3 thousand jobs and the unemployment rate climbed to 6.2%, up from 5.2% a month earlier.
In the U. s., the inflation remained flat in April, while the economy continues to sag under the weight of the Corvid-19 pandemic. The CPI fell by 0.8%, down from -0.4% a month earlier. The kernel is read, it fell 0.4%, down from -0.1% in the previous version. Both figures missed their estimates. Unemployment claims continue to fall, and fell below 3 million last week, with an output of 2.98 million. Still, this missed the estimate, or $ 2.5 million. Retail sales were a blood bath in April, the figure fell by 16.4%, while the core is read, it is down 17.2%. Analysts had expected declines, or -12.0% for the title, and 16.4 ‘ for the basic version.
- RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 1:30 pm. The RBA minutes will provide the details of the policy during a meeting at the beginning of this month. At this meeting, the political leaders heroes of the cash rate to 0.25 percent, noting the uncertainty on the outlook for the global economy.
- The MI leading Index: Thursday, 0:30 am. The Melbourne Institute index fell sharply in March, with a decline of 0.8%, pointing to a sputtering economy. The April release date is “next”.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
Technical from top to bottom:
0.6825 supported the pair at the end of 2016 and early 2017.
0.6744 it was a low point in January.
0.6627 was a hero of the resistance since the beginning of March. 0.6560 is the following.
0.6456 remains relevant, and is the next line of resistance.
0.6380 (mentioned last week) and remains at a low level of support. This line could see some of the action in the beginning of the week.
0.6240, this is the following.
0.6150 has provided support since the beginning of April. This is the last level of support for the time being.
I am neutral on AUD/USD
Australia is very dependent on trade with China, and the huge slowdown in China has also taken a heavy toll on the Australian economy. In the short term, the outlook for the Australian dollar as it is positive.
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